Welcome to Week 17 of The OSG Report!!
With no Thursday games and no byes, we have a full slate. However, there are games and situations to flat-out avoid. Without eliminating too many players, I believe we have a nice tight player pool of guys in good spots, on teams playing well, and competing still with 2 weeks remaining. Enough of that…Let’s GO!
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford — He completely busted last week, and I am going right back to the well here on Stafford and The Rams offense. Baltimore gives up too many big plays. They give up the most 20 & 40+ yard passes. It just seems like playing against teams like Minnesota and Baltimore are recipes for shootouts and bounce backs.
Josh Allen — On paper it is a great spot for Allen. If you can ignore the possible weather and consider if Buffalo still scores 3–4 TDs, they will mostly come from Allen against this Atlanta “defense.”
Joe Burrow vs Patrick Mahomes — It may be a better spot for Mixon, but Burrow has been on point as of late, culminating with last weeks 2nd eruption vs Baltimore. This game vs KC should be a great AFC showdown. Mahomes gets a healthy WR and TE core again. It’s a good spot on paper for KC to thrive in a competitive game.
Kyler Murray vs Dak Prescott — I still have a little interest in the Dallas defense to overwhelm Arizona’s WR core, but in this dome, you still should consider Kyler here. Another competitive game here with postseason meaning. Dak finally showed the ceiling last week and shows what he can do when hot. The Cardinals defense had not been as tough as early season.
Trey Lance — He is only 4.8K on DK and as stated by the 49ers head coach, he has had a great month plus of practice. For his price, his rushing ability, and maybe he has gotten better with more practice time, it’s VERY hard to ignore him vs The Texans.
Wide Receiver
Top 2
Cooper Kupp — Despite Van Jefferson’s bad game, I’m willing to go back to he, Odell Beckham, Jr. and Kupp in this matchup. With a depleted Ravens secondary, we saw what Burrow did last week. Baltimore gives up too much passing, and too many big plays down the field to ignore this spot.
Jaylen Waddle — He’s the clear #1 WR in Miami. It’s a tough sport for RBs, and WRs have been thriving here vs Tennessee. He has 3 straight double-digit target games, and one with 9 the game before. Ride this hot hand.
Next 2
Stefon Diggs & Gabriel Davis — Again factor the weather into decision making here for Buffalo vs Atlanta. It’s still a game Buffalo wants to win. Beasley is expected back, but Sanders is very questionable. Anytime Sanders or Beasley has been out, it elevates the others WRs, mainly Gabe Davis. I’m probably only going Diggs in Allen stacks at his price.
Amon Ra-St. Brown — Also a new #1 WR and even gets Goff back for this matchup. He 4 straight games with double digit targets, and TDs in 3 out of his last 4. I will note that work has been with Swift OUT who is set to return. Detroit loved to dump off to Swift, but hopefully they continue this downfield passing success as well. Josh Reynolds is on the COVID list however still leaving plenty of WR targets to go around. You can possibly run Tyler Lockett back in a mini game stack here without use of either QB.
Shaky 3 with upside
AJ Brown — No Julio will leave a decent target share for Brown. The game has a low total, but he and Waddle could have their share of targets from both sides here. It’s a tough spot for Tennessee RBs and the passing game should thrive as much as it can.
Deebo Samuel — He returned to being a WR last week, but gets Lance here. It will be interesting to see the style of offense they run and Deebo’s involvement here.
CeeDee Lamb & Amari Cooper — We never know any rhyme or reason when one of these players pop. Dak having a good game will heavily benefit one of the 2. I may lean Lamb.
Last 3 In
Tee Higgins & Ja’Marr Chase — After last week we SHOULD be having them at the top of the list. KC can be a little stingy on WRs at times, but if Burrow and Co. are clicking then it may not matter. Higgins has the hot hand and probably the better matchup here of the two.
Brandin Cooks — He returns from the COVID list to a QB in Davis Mills who is playing well. If they can close the gap a little vs SF with Lance at QB it should benefit Cooks. Also, if they get behind it should also benefit Cooks as Houston is not putting a leash on Mills right now.
Hunter Renfrow — Decent dome matchup here vs Indy. It’s a spot we can target while Waller is on the shelf. The Raiders at times have a low floor TD wise, but he can make it up in the PPR department. We can also look to Michael Pittman on the other side of the game as well with Wentz returning from the COVID list.
Value
There is a number of players that we can list and you can always play a low price player for these reasons:
1) QB stack.
2) Players being ruled out and possibly creating more playing time leading to targets.
3) A missing TE can elevate a low price WR into a bigger role, especially in the red zone if that TE is there.
One WR to highlight this week and not list them all is (it’s rough) Braxton Berrios. He’s 3.7K on DK with a depleted WR core facing a shaky Tampa defense. The Jets are bad but it is a good spot. He’s seen 10 and 6 targets in 2 of his last 3, and has double digit fantasy points in 3 straight. To compare at 4K we can look at Nico Collins again. Yes Cooks is back, but Dorsett went to the IR and Conley is very questionable with missed practices this week for the Texans.
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor — He’s priced up on a slate where there isn’t a ton of great value but he gets a healthy offensive line back, along with Wentz at home in a GREAT spot.
Ronald Jones — Saw 20 carries last week, and his YPC should be MUCH better in this matchup. Chase the volume on a competent offense with Fournette OUT. Godwin is out. Evans is very questionable with an injury plus having no chance of practice being on the COVID list. Brown did not practice Thursday or Friday. But you have to consider him….he’s facing the Jets.
Javonte Williams/Melvin Gordon — Both are questionable going into Saturday. Either one being out would make the other a must play though they are still good plays together. All you have to do is run run run on the Chargers as Rex Burkhead did last week. Chase the spot.
Rashaad Penny — Continued to dominate the backfield and now gets an even better matchup vs Detroit. A great piece to run with Amon Ra-St. Brown in mini game stacks.
Devin Singletary — Shaky, but if they lean more run with the questionable weather, that would benefit Singletary. Good spot on paper.
David Montgomery — Continues to dominate backfield usage for Chicago. Great spot to pair with defense vs the lowly G-Men.
Joe Mixon — Perhaps in a better spot than any WR in Cincy and they have no problems feeding Mixon the rock. Could go overlooked and will be the path to failure for the Cincy pass game fantasy wise.
Sony Michel — No Darrell Henderson once again means he will be the #1RB and he has responded well. Based on his touch count the last 4, he’s a lock for 20 and could see 25+ touches as he has done so in 2 of those last 4. Any lineup without the Rams passing game should have Sony Michel rostered.
Chase Edmonds — James Conner’s health depends on this play as it’s a tough spot on paper for RBs. These RBs thrive when the other is out as we saw in previous weeks with no Edmonds. Last week we saw what Edmonds can and will do with no Conner.
Tight End
Travis Kelce — Wash rinse repeat playing TEs vs Cincy. It should be a good game to stack.
Foster Moreau — Continue to play with no Waller as it’s a great spot for TEs. Good price on DK.
Tyler Higbee — Good spot. Should also consider when stacking Stafford.
Rob Gronkowski — Busted big time last week in a good spot and got out-targeted by Cameron Brate 4 to 2. As the WR unit is thin, that should not repeat as Brady goes out of his way to make up for things such as this as he was clearly targeting Brown (15 targets) last week. Good spot vs Jets.
George Kittle — Best TE in football still, and TEs can be a young QBs best friend at times. Saw 10 targets catching 4 of them in his only full game with Lance.
CJ Uzomah — It’s secretly a better spot here than Cincy WRs and should be considered for some value if you need the savings. When you look at his reception and targets and yards, all he is missing is the TDs.
Zach Ertz — 7, 11, and 13 targets the last 3 weeks. Should continue to look this way with D-Hop out. I’ve been chasing AJ Green when not rostering Kirk in Murray stacks, but this may be the preferred target.
Mark Andrews — Not as great a spot but he is playing matchup proof ball at this point regardless of the QB play and that has been what is most impressive.
Stephen Anderson — Value alert — If you want to go bottom minimum let me introduce you to Stephen Anderson. While the spot itself is not great on paper for TEs, he’s 2.5K on DK, No Jared Cook, no Donald Parham. Herbert has simply been great this season and aside from the TE core, should have a healthy WR and RB unit elevating the offense overall.
Defense — Any game where we have mostly crossed out any hope of an offensive player is a good spot to target defenses this week.
Bears — Facing the Giants has been a optimal fantasy idea for defenses. NY is allergic to TDs and good QBs. They’re 7 point underdogs to Chicago for “crying out loud.”
Saints — Facing Carolina…
Rams — While I do expect Baltimore to fight back, the Rams should dominate in the trenches creating a lot of pressure.
49ers — Also should dominate with their defensive line.
Chiefs — Could be a sneaky spot for KC to overwhelm Cincy’s offensive line which can be shaky at times.
Titans/Dolphins — It’s a very low total.
Cowboys — One of my sneaky defenses to simply continue doing what they have been doing. Creating pressure and turnovers. I think their CBs can dominate Kirk and Green.
