Welcome to the REST of Week 12s OSG Report. Let’s begin with the fact that there are some crappy games on the main slate. I honestly believe we could fade all games except Bucs/Colts and then the 3 late games: Chargers/Broncos Vikings/49ers Rams/Packers.
We will still go position by position and give you the best stacks to consider, roster fillers, and value to consider.
Quarterback
Tom Brady — The GOAT had a bounce back and travels to the dome in Indy to face a red-hot Jonathan Taylor. The spot is too good to ignore Brady — Mike Evans/Chris Godwin stacks here. Can even round out with Rob Gronkowski as it’s a TE friendly matchup.
Jalen Hurts- He’s just a cheat code to 20+ points vs a Giants defense that we are NOT afraid of. He leads NFL QBs with 8 rushing TDs and only trails Lamar in rushing yards. He’s hard to stack with his rushing TD potential, but Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are the paths if you must stack.
Matthew Stafford — It’s a very interesting game with the Rams-Packers as we try to determine pace, how healthy Rodgers is, and if OBJ ever going to be a factor. At 9.6K Cooper Kupp is a tough sell to stack here though his floor is incredibly high. Van Jefferson may be in play with the stack with Robert Woods done for the season.
Justin Herbert — With his target count, Herbert — Keenan Allen stacks are high floor every week. We want to see more TDs to hit the ceiling. Denver’s defense is up and down and nothing to run from despite being a division game.
Kirk Cousins — He and Justin Jefferson continue to explode for big games and I do think that continues here vs an improved SF defense. Minnesota’s offense for several seasons has been straight-forward with very little surprises. Adam Thielen’s heavy redzone usage keeps him in play as well.
Jimmy G — At 5.7K we cannot ignore his efficiency (especially since the return of George Kittle). Jimmy G’s floor with Deebo Samuel’s upside each week is too high at this point in a great spot vs Minnesota.
Cam Newton — Ouch but he’s still in play at 5.6K. We saw the 20+ points last week and while Miami’s defense is not as bad as once advertised, he’s still too cheap for multiple TD upside.
Just missing the cut:
Aaron Rodgers and Joe Burrow — Rodgers health is in question and he’s an easy pair any week with Davante Adams. I was on him last week, but for his price range he could be out play this week. Joe Burrow is handing if off more, and I never rush to stack AFC North division games. But we do know Burrow’s upside.
Wide Receiver
Cooper Kupp vs Davante Adams — At 9.6 vs 8.6K I wonder if they are just priced too high. The floors are there, but at Kupps price we NEED 30. Yes he can get there, but I do respect Green Bay’s defense. His game is not the same as Justin Jefferson who was able to beat Green Bay’s coverage several times last week.
Justin Jefferson — Just keep playing the best deep ball WR in the NFL right now. He and Cousins have great chemistry. You do not need to stack with Cousins to play Jefferson.
Deebo Samuel — Each week I say as long as Jimmy G is in, he gets a green light, and is adding the rushing floor. Can’t miss spot vs Minnesota.
Keenan Allen — His price is creeping up, but he’s a lock for double digit targets.
Ja’Marr Chase — He’s managed to hit the end zone despite some low performances. I hate AFC North games, but he’s the kind of game breaker to make the big play in a tight game.
Mike Evans — 8 TDs in 6 weeks. No Antonio Brown still…in the dome…Should stay hot here.
Chris Godwin — For all the same reasons playing with Brady and no Brown.
*Mid-Range Value*
Adam Thielen — TDs are always in play as he is 7/7 on targets inside the 10. 5 of his 8 TDs are from inside the 10.
Devontae Smith — Hurts #1 target.
Diontae Johnson & Charles Claypool — I like the big play of Claypool more here in a tight game.
DJ Moore — With Cam back, his value is back as well. They’re playing in warm Miami and should see the highest number of targets by Cam.
Michael Pittman — At 5.6K he’s Jonathan Taylor’s ONLY path to failure vs this tough Tampa rush D. I’ve been playing him through these low box scores and now is NOT the time to jump off the train.
*Value WRs*
Marvin Jones, Jr. and Leviska Shenault — Back to agony here but Jamal Agnew is done for the season and it’s a great spot for WRs in an ugly game vs Atlanta. It could either be 10–7 or 34–31 with Atlanta/Jax.
Brandon Aiyuk — Slow start to the season, but is coming around as the 49ers offense is clicking.
Odell Beckham, Jr. — Any day he should have a big play.
Van Jefferson — In line for continued usage in the Rams offense at 4.9K. Great price saver.
Marquez Valdez-Scantling — Saw a team high 10-targets (when is the last time any Packer out-targeted Adams??) and caught the long ball. Any extra special attention on Adams leaves Rodgers next best target open.
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor — Well earned 9.1K price tag in a tough matchup. Talent, opportunity and pass catching ability can outplay the matchup.
Christian McCaffrey — Same as Taylor at 9K if you can take the price. Guaranteed floor of 20+ points regardless of game script. Always have to factor the potential of losing a goal line carry or two with Cam at QB.
Austin Ekeler — Touch count remains high with virtually no backup RBs taking away carries in a high powered offense.
Najee Harris — Caught 14/19 targets vs Cincy in Week 3. Saw Josh Jacobs garner some passing work vs Cincy, so it’s clearly a spot to attack.
Dalvin Cook — With a league leading number of stops at the 1-yard line with ridiculous touch counts, and a discount of the above names remains in play.
Joe Mixon — Volume play here. Destined for 20+ touches every week.
Leonard Fournette — His pass catching keeps him in play in such a great offense. Caught 44/54 targets this season and adds to his floor.
Saquan Barkley — The Eagles present his best matchup to date as a pass catching RB. We are not sure what to expect from the GEEEEEEEMen after firing their offensive coordinator.
AJ Dillon — If Aaron Jones remains out we can go back to the well here.
Darrell Henderson — His touches and price continue to fall, but still have to consider in an NFC showdown with Green Bay.
Javonte Williams — Here is my complete off the board play that will not get recommended anywhere else. The Chargers (while the last 2 weeks they were much better) jus have flat out been unable to stop the run. Williams remains in a time share with Melvin Gordon. Williams is more explosive, so the break out spot could be here at 5.2K. I look for ways to attack this rush defense each week.
Miles Sanders — Had 94 rushing yards in his first game back and gets a friendly matchup vs the Giants. Jordan Howard is OUT, leaving the work to Sanders and Boston Scott.
Tight End
George Kittle — Has been on fire since his return and should continue vs Minnesota.
Kyle Pitts — Production has been down but a date with the Jags could cure that.
Dallas Goedert — High priced, but chemistry is there with Hurts.
Noah Fant — Great TE matchup vs Chargers.
Hunter Henry — Just catches TDs…but he catches a lot of them.
Rob Gronkowski — Next to the GOAT and with no AB still out, he’s a GREAT red zone target and jumped right back into a heavy role in his first game back. Great in Brady stacks.
Pat Friermuth — Elite play vs Cincy with no Ebron.
Tyler Higbee — Has not seen the best usage, but hard to ignore the TE matchup vs Green Bay.
Dan Arnold — Finally had a low game, but Agnew is out and the targets could easily come back this week.
Evan Engram — Here’s the guy I DON’T want to play, but the matchup vs Philly is TOO HARD TO IGNORE. Even saw Adam Trautman blow this spot up. It’s his best matchup to date and if he cannot succeed here than he and the Giants are completely done.
Tyler Conklin — In play in game stacks.
Jared Cook & Donald Parham — They continue to cancel one another out in theory, but the volume from the offense is there.
Defense
Patriots — Tennessee looks to be in trouble and this is a pivotal game for atop the AFC standings. Pats defense has been showing up.
Chargers — As bad as this rush defense has been, Denver’s pass protection has been worse. LA has yet to dominate a game defensively. Could see that Sunday.
Rams — Rodgers’ health is critical to this call as his toe is giving him problems.
Eagles — Have been on fire as of late. I loved when the price was lower, but still in play here at 3.2K.
Panthers — Underrated defense vs an underdeveloped QB.
49ers — Have been teeing off lately. Cousins is the kind of sitting duck they could take advantage of in a game that could be very tight.
Colts — I like Tampa quite a bit, but Brady can be pressured here.
Packers — Rams did not look good on their last outing. Thin play here but it’s still a good defense overall.
Vikings — They continue to force turnovers and generate pressure/sacks.
Texans — They are facing Zach Wilson and the Jets.
Jags — They are facing Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Guess you could say the same for the Falcons defense.
