Welcome to the Regular Season Finale Week 18 of The OSG Report. We will begin with this disclaimer for Week 18. If YOU find an edge, a stat, a reason, a motivation, or good spot anywhere, hammer the play. There are some teams who have clinched playoff spots that will not move up or down (IE The Bucs) and will rest players for halves or whole games Sunday. The Titans are fighting for the 1 seed vs a spoiler team in Houston (whom they’ve lost to already) and maybe one or two meaningless games where starters may very well play in full (IE Bears at Vikings).
Therefore this weeks player pool is short, with players that should play in full AND in decent spots. So with that said, here we GO!
Josh Allen — Buffalo should play a full 4 quarters. There is once again weather concerns which should cap Allen’s ceiling. He however has the ability as we saw last week to still account for multiple TDs with his rushing ability. It does not hurt he is facing the Jets.
Kyler Murrary — AZ should also be playing to win. He’s coming into Week 18 with decent fantasy output as of late including rushing despite the loss of D-Hop. Chase Edmonds is out. Conner is questionable.
Matthew Stafford — He’s been in some great spots as of late, and I’m going to ride him here one more week vs SF. He’s at home in a dome needing a win.
Russell Wilson — Not playing for much but he threw 4 TDs last week, and I still expect him to play this entire game at AZ in a dome.
Taysom Hill — With his rushing upside and price and matchup vs Atlanta in a dome he is in play here without stacking with a WR.
Kirk Cousins — Could be a Cousins week here at home vs Chicago.
Andy Dalton — Also in the dome vs Minnesota which is a hot spot for shootouts. He has a healthy WR RB and TE core.
Wide Receivers — We could really start and begin with whom you are going to plug in at QB.
Bills — I’m not sure who my favorite target here will be come Sunday. Yes, you can always play Stefon Diggs but the ceiling just has not been there for his price. He’s still great. Allen just spreads the ball around, runs in the red zone, and with the weather Buffalo, Allen is probably not going to throw the ball 40 times. So we could lean more Cole Beasley and Gabe Davis for the savings if we can ignore last weeks performance.
Cardinals — I may be crazy but at 4.1K I may ride the Antoine Wesley train again this week. For all of the reasons we want to play Christian Kirk, or AJ Green, he’s in the same spot and seeing end zone targets.
LA Rams — Cooper Kupp is having a historical season that should continue this week. As long as Stafford can control the turnovers I think he is an excellent play. And as always OBJ and Van Jefferson carry big play upside in this offense.
DK Metalf and Tyler Lockett — Wilson’s favorite targets any given week. I always lean Lockett for his role in the slot but if you play Wilson, you can fire either up.
Justin Jefferson — In a league of his own right now. With no Thielen, he’s a shoe in 1for 00 yards this week. KJ Osborn should also continue to see work as well.
Bears — My favorite is Darnell Mooney. A-Rob is only 4K but I’m not sure. But this Sunday you can take a stab anywhere. I like this play more in Dalton stacks as Minnesota always seems to house shootouts.
Wide Receivers Without Stacks
Amon Ra-St. Brown — The price rises but so does the production. Detroit is at home continuing to work their young players facing a Packers team who will likely trot out back-ups the majority of the game. Could be a hot spot for production catching passes from Jared Goff once again.
Jaylen Waddle — He busted in a BIG way Week 17. It’s not an easy matchup. Sometimes you go right back to the well on a #1WR having a great season.
Brandin Cooks — The Texans beat the Titans with Taylor under center. Not that it happens again, but Houston is playing as good of football as their talent allows.
Deebo Samuel/Brandon Aiyuk — The 49ers/Rams game should be competitive. Jimmy G practiced and is still listed as questionable.
Cyril Grayson — I’m not sure how much Brady will throw Sunday, but I can imagine Grayson will be on the field getting reps. He was recently signed to the active roster following a 6/81/1TD outing. At 4.4K we could do worse as value is limited.
Running Back — Here is where we will make or break it.
Jonathan Taylor — Of course he’s great if you can afford him.
Alvin Kamara — Great tournament play with Mark Ingram ruled out once again.
Dalvin Cook — Is allegedly going to play a full game as he stated he’s playing for his father who recently passed. These types of narratives count.
David Montgomery — The role is just too secure right now in an excellent matchup.
Rashaad Penny — On fire as of late and should continue vs AZ.
James Conner — He’s been so close to playing the last two weeks as he was true game time decisions. Both weeks he was declared active, and then ruled out right before game time. Chase Edmonds is OUT and we have seen this show with Conner active and Edmonds out. You just play him.
Devin Singletary — The Buffalo weather has been leading to more handoffs. Great matchup.
Eli Mitchell — 49ers clear lead back. Plug n Play
Sony Michel — The Rams clear lead back as well. Cam Akers should return so it will be interesting to see how far they go with Akers.
Rhamondre Stevenson — Damien Harris can’t seem to shake this hamstring issue. If Harris gets ruled out, Stevenson is a great play.
D’Onta Foreman — I’ve talked extensively about how the Texans beat the Titans as the Titans have some bad losses. Great wins, but bad losses. The Jets. The Texans…but have beaten the likes of Buffalo, KC, the Rams, and SF, but got drubbed by New England. Regardless, they should finish with a bang, and it should be typical Tennessee football. Smash mouth, run the ball. If D-Henry returns for the playoffs, this is Foreman’s last spot start to shine. He’s gone over 100 in 3 of his last 5 and gets a great spot here.
Jaret Patterson — I don’t see Washington rolling out Gibson for a heavy workload here. It’s a great spot if he can get to 20 carries, even pairing with his defense vs the lowly Giants. He scored a rush TD last week and caught all 5 of his targets. At 5.3K I’ll take it.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn — Getting thin here, but no Fournette, No Ronald Jones, and maybe they run the ball heavily here, and I cannot imagine the pound the rock with Le’Veon Bell.
Rex Burkhead — OUCH but he’s the lead back in Houston. Carried 18 times vs Tennessee in the win.
Mark Andrews, George Kittle, and Rob Gronkowski are all priced too high on DK with very little value to justify spending up at TE.
I like Zach Ertz production over similar priced Dawson Knox or Mike Gesicki. Ertz has been a favorite target of Murray’s since his return and D-Hop’s exit. We continue to chase the WRs in AZ but it’s Ertz whom over his last 4 has seen 7, 11, 13 and 9 targets. He has double digit fantasy points in 3 and all with no TDs. Good spot for it vs Seattle.
I feel like Tyler Conklin and Hunter Henry are priced a tad higher than I’d want them to be (especially Conklin). Conklin’s case gets elevated as all pass catchers in Minnesota does when Thielen is out. Cousins’ target tree is very thin. Henry’s TD equity almost justifies the price. Tyler Higbee has seen an uptick in targets as of late. I’m leaning Gerald Everett as a decent spend down at 3.7K as a Steady Eddie producer. I keep chasing Cole Kmet at 3.4K and he’s scored ZERO TDs this season.
The Patriots, Saints, and Titans are high on my list this week as defenses who should control the trenches vs QBs who will take sacks.
Some defenses this week will be acceptable when we land on them price wise for good reasons. Washington simply because the Giants canNOT score TDs. Neither Seattle or Arizona’s defense will give you negative points. It’s their 2nd division game which historically leads to lower totals. AZ is 2.7K and Seattle is 2.5K. Both reasonable.
Lastly, if you’re one to take on bad ideas, the Rams/49ers could suddenly turn into a turnover fest. Stafford just has not looked good as of late and Jimmy G or Trey Lance can certainly donate the ball to opposing defenses. If you need to save money at defense, it’s slim pickings. You can make a case for Houston at home as they’ve already defeated Tennessee. They had 4 INTs, 1 fumble recovery, and 2 sacks. Good for 16 DK points. Detroit could see the back ups in Green Bay, and Miami played New England to a 17–16 finish in Week 1.