Welcome to a CRUCIAL Week 10 OSG Report. My my it has been an interesting season and the value is loaded this week. Injuries and COVID have left us with some extreme question marks going into Sunday, so be sure to somehow keep up with actives/inactives Saturday night/ Sunday morning. So with that said...let’s get to it!!
Quarterback — At this point in the season, we know most of the QBs. You can find any reason to stack a QB and WR. Price, opportunity, matchup, and outright gut feeling. I list here MY PERSONAL FAVORITES and why, and in order from favorite and on down.
Justin Herbert — I am the leader of the Herbert fan club clearly as I stack he and pass catchers every week. Especially with Keenan Allen. He bounced back last week which was good to see for a young QB, that he can go back to the drawing boards. I love the matchup of Minnestoa/LA Chargers to potentially shootout and take every piece in this game. Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and throwing darts and their TEs Jared Cook, Stephen Anderson, and Donald Parham.
Tom “The GOAT” Brady — He’s the GOAT and you just play him especially in a great matchup such as this. He’s had 400 yards twice, 370+ twice, two 5 TD games, 3 4TD games. So many fantasy players look to the rushing QBs to add to their floor projections, but with these numbers you can’t miss. NO Antonio Brown, no Gronk, and Chris Godwin is very questionable and listed as a Game Time Decision as of Friday leaves an easy stack with Mike Evans.
Josh Allen — “Josh Allen sacks…Josh Allen!” I’m sure this Josh Allen would like to forget the last two weeks. Most notably being tormented by his own name sake brother Josh Allen of JAX. Gang Green provides the opportunity to do so. It cannot get any worse than last week for Allen and I think he can bounce back. Stacking him is the trick here. Dawson Knox is expected to be back which means a full offense with Stephon Diggs, Cole Beasley, and Emmanuel Sanders.
Dak Prescott — Another can’t get any worse spot here for Dallas as they face the VERY friendly secondary of Atlanta. Michael Gallup is due back which muddies up how we stack Dak, and Dallas should be at full roster strength (even if a little banged up). Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Gallup, will all be active Sunday. We should see light up this secondary for as much as he is allowed to throw in a potential shootout in Jerry World. I don’t mind a full game stack here running Atlanta pieces back such as Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts.
Russell Wilson — Russ returns and the only thing that will hold him back is a run heavy approach from his head coach. DK Metcalf looks great, and due to a “down tick” in production he’s only 6.8K on DK and Tyler Lockett at 6.5k. With Wilson at 6.7K THIS IS THE CHEAPEST YOU’LL GET THIS STACK. This NFC showdown at Green Bay should be close, and competitive.
Honorable Mention:
Jalen Hurts rushing floor gives him value each and every week. I always fear if he “can’t” run any game for whatever reason, he’s got an ugly floor in a run heavy offense. Matt Ryan — Cordarrelle Patteson — Kyle Pitts in one lineup will access the ENTIRE Atlanta offense if you think this game can stay close. This stack with your favorite run backs on Dallas could pay off. The game has a 55-point total in the dome. Ryan Tannehill — AJ Brown — Julio Jones could be something with Henry out.
Wide Receiver — The Big Guns
Davante Adams — All depends on Aaron Rodgers being activated from the COVID list. However, if Jordan Love hits him on 2 or so wide-open looks, their fantasy day ends much different. He still saw 14 targets.
AJ Brown — Great usage over the last month and continues to dominate WR target share in Tennessee.
Justin Jefferson — The ceiling game is coming and I love Minnesota/LA Chargers this week. Can add Adam Thielen once again here as well.
Terry McLaurin — He either gets 30 or less than 10. This is the prime matchup for 125+ and 2 TDs vs this Tampa secondary.
Stephon Diggs — I hate the price each week as the ceiling is not there. Consistent yes. Spike games no. But the potential is there every week.
CeeDee Lamb/Amari Cooper — I can never guess why/how one of these guys has great games. It’s an efficient offense. Dak does not lock in one guy (like GB does Adams), so if you have a lean here, it’s a great spot for this entire pass offense.
Keenan Allen — 18 rec 181 yards the last 2 games. Should not stop here.
Mike Evans — He is already a great play, but becomes a blowup spot if Chris Godwin is ruled out.
Diontae Johnson — Often overlooked because Ben is “bad.” Charles Claypool is likely out leaving Johnson to be a true #1 WR vs a shaky shaky Detroit secondary.
DK Metcalf & Tyler Lockett — Prices are down from the Geno Smith era in a potential shootout (yet slow paced game) at Green Bay.
Mike Williams — Injuries and defensive schemes have slowed Big Mike down. I will continue to play him especially vs Minnesota. His price is down, his production is down, which means his ownership should also be down.
Mid-Range
Michael Pittman — He and Carson Wentz is another cheap stack not mentioned above. The pass game is where you want to attack JAX (watch out for Josh Allen!) He’s been rock steady and he is always one of those mid-range value guys that does not get much hype. Has 3 20pt performances, and 1 30 ball. He’s averaging more DK points than AJ Brown (priced higher) Terry McLaurin (higher) Stephon Diggs (higher) just to name a few.
Christian Kirk — Both D-Hop and Rondale Moore are game time decisions, and Hopkins has not practiced thru Friday making him more doubtful. Even with McCoy, Kirk went 6/6 on targets. Should be noted AJ Green is set to return and pass catching back Chase Edmonds is out.
Julio Jones — AJ Brown’s path to failure. One day should break out. 5.4K is probably his lowest career price. Perhaps Lattimore shadows Brown, leaving Julio “open.”
Jerry Jeudy — Looked great in his return. I do believe he will eventually become the alpha #1 in Denver. If he does, this 5.3K price tag is just too cheap vs Philly.
Cole Beasley — 11 receptions but only 33 yards last week vs Miami. Decent PPR performance and stays cheaper than Emanuel Sanders (also playable in Allen stacks).
Value WRs
Elijah Moore — I hate touching the Jets but he had a coming out party finally. Jamison Crowder could also be in play, but it’s a tough matchup vs Buffalo.
Michael Gallup — DK missed his possible return leaving him down at 4K which will make him popular in this matchup. He’s still the #3 when he comes back, but saw 7 healthy targets before exiting week 1 vs Tampa.
Tyler Johnson — At 3.3K with no AB, no Gronk, and Godwin questionable to doubtful, he should get a full-time playing load here. Even the other value option in Scotty Miller (3K) is questionable. Johnson is familiar with the offense, and with GOAT Brady at the helm, he could/should easily pay off his value.
Running Back –
Jonathan Taylor — The JAGS run D is quietly good, only allowing 3.51 YPC. So this is a bet on talent and domination of a backfield + hot streak. Over his last 6 he has 9 TDs, 6.6 YPC, clocking 145.5 yards per game. Possibly one of the better spend ups at RB with CMAC easing his way back, and Kamara ruled out.
Dalvin Cook — He is in my opinion the BEST spend-up option at RB. Each week we attack the Chargers Run D with less talented RBs and those who do not dominate RB touches in the same manner as Cook. This is just a smash spot and a must play in Minnesota/LA Charger stacks.
Najee Harris — Guaranteed 25+ touch spot. His ceiling is much greater when he’s catching balls. We saw the Philly team just destroy this Detroit run D.
Austin Ekeler — Always has ceiling potential.
Cordarrelle Patterson — We get a WR at the RB spot in a good matchup. They design packages for him in the red zone, he is running routes and should stay this way as long is Calvin Ridley is out.
James Conner — We saw last week what he’s capable of with Chase Edmonds out. He should now dominate all touches, not just short yardage and red zone, as well as be involved in the passing game, regardless of the QB.
Boston Scott/Jordan Howard — I hate it, but Howard has fresh legs and Philly is now a running team. They’re both at 4.9K.
D’Ernest Johnson — At 4.7K he’s the ONLY RB on the Cleveland RB on the roster coming out of last week. Hunt is still out Chubb and Felton are on the COVID list as we await any practice squad call ups. Not the best matchup vs New England per se, but he is going to carry 20–25 times in an already run heavy offense, as we have seen him perform in this same situation.
Mark Ingram — Ouch, but should be the feature back at 4.5K with Alvin Kamara ruled OUT.
Brandon Bolden/JJ Taylor — If that isn’t enough questionable plays, at 4.4K and 4K someone has to play in New England vs Cleveland. Both Harris and Stephenson are in the concussion protocol.
Tight End
Kyle Pitts — A WR at TE here, and in fact the #2 WR on the team. Highest priced TE on the slate however as I’ll likely look to spend down at TE.
TJ Hockenson — One of the few bright spots in Detroit. Since he’s been healthy, he’s been legit good in PPR formats, even in the blowout loss to Philly.
Dallas Schultz — Dallas Goedert — Zach Ertz — Dawson Knox (likely to return to Buffalo) — They’re all fine here if you can afford them or stacking their QBs (always a good idea to consider TEs in game stacks to get off of the highly used TEs each week).
Noah Fant — Likely my favorite TE this week vs Philly. Each week I look at TEs vs Cleveland, and TEs vs Philly. Last week the trio of Chargers TEs went 11/126/2TDs and a combined 37.6 DK fantasy points vs Philly. That along with Keenan Allen’s 25.4 DK fantasy points vs Philly sets up Fant and one other WR in Denver for a big game. Albert O is likely out leaving Fant and Fant alone at TE.
Hunter Henry — TD every week on low usage.
Pat Friermuth — Red hot since Ebron went down. Great matchup vs Detroit.
Rickey Seals Jones- In play as long as Logan Thomas is out. Plays every single down for Washington.
Dan Arnold — JAX uses their TEs. Averaging 7.5 targets his last 4 in JAX.
Tyler Conkln — Sneaky play here and in a good TE matchup vs LA. 7 targets the last two weeks. Great in Minn/LA stacks.
Defense
Steelers — Expensive on DK. D line advantage.
Patriots — TD the last two weeks. Baker is playing on a bad shoulder.
Saints- In play every week.
Cowboys — The bottom can fall out on Matt Ryan any given Sunday.
Titans — Red hot the last month. They have a sack in every single game this year. 3 TDs. INTs in all but 2 games, including two games with 2. Trevor Siemian, Taysom Hill, no Kamara. I’ll take that at 2.6K
Packers vs Seahawks — GB holds the defensive line advantage here, but there are paths to success for either defense, especially in the instance Aaron Rodgers is not activated by Saturday off of the COVID list.
Vikings — Even if they allow points, they still rack up fantasy points. Sacks in all but one game. And those games have MULTIPLE sacks. 5, 4, 3, over and over.
