Week 3 OSG Report
The weeks keep rolling by, and the stats pile up. We had a very good Week 2, so let’s keep that momentum going. Week 3…….LET’S GO!!
Quarterback — Top 6 spots
Tom Brady v Matt Stanford — You cannot go wrong with either. But I do have a sense of respect for The Rams defense which I could see myself throwing into a tournament lineup. Brady struggles historically when he gets hit and is under pressure. I just know that HAS to be the game plan for Aaron Donald and Co. If they sit back and let him rip, it’s going to be a high scoring affair. So, with that said, and Antonio Brown possibly out (COVID list) stack Tom Terrific with Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, & Rob “2TDs a game” Gronkowski. One of the wideouts will see Jalen Ramsey coverage, but we are only guessing. This offense has scored 30 or more in 9 straight, and Gronk has 2 TDS in 3 straight games going back to the Super Bowl. For Stafford, its easy…Cooper Kupp. Thru 2 weeks, he’s Fantasy’s WR1 and out targeting Robert Woods 21 to 13. For the price, I’ll likely have more Van Jefferson than Woods.
Justin Herbert v Patrick Mahomes — I had been high on Keenan Allen as Herbert’s best stack mate. Insert Mike Williams’ 22 quality targets to Keenan Allen’s 21. Do not ignore stacking Herbert with Austin Ekeler. RB is a spot to target vs KC…He had 9 recs in week 2 after 0 in Week 1. On the KC side, they’re expensive but you find a way to pair Mahomes with Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce. Mecole Hardman is operating as the WR2, really WR3 behind Kelce. But with 11 targets, he’s involved and catching balls from one of the best.
Russell Wilson v Kirk Cousins — Russ is easy to stack. It’s Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. Lockett is Fantasy WR2 behind Kupp, and on fire. He has 3 TDS to open, but he and DK both have 16 targets. We think DK will see the Patrick Peterson coverage (who really knows). As we see DeAndre Hopkins stat line week 2 vs him while Rondale Moore ran wild (as we said)..that was Peterson coverage. Minnesota’s side is tricky. I was high on KJ Osborn at 3.3K…he did go off in week 2 but is now only 3.5K. I’m not sure if this is a trap, and we go back to Justin Jefferson. He’s seen 19 targets vs Adam Thielen’s 17. Thielen has 3 TDS and 8 first downs, which shows he’s still the go to guy for Kirk in tight spots. While Irv Smith stays out at TE, we will see 3 WR sets which has Osborn and his 14 targets on the field.
Kyler Murray — QB1 in Fantasy, and the top priced QB on DK (well earned) comes in on fire for a cross country trip to JAX. I think we go back to DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore here. In fact, you make the stacks every week. I happen to like Moore’s price at 5K as it continues to creep up with his increased usage. If you play multiple stacks, you can mix in AJ Green and Christian Kirk but they will take turns getting duds as the 3rd and 4th mouth.
Lamar Jackson v Jared Goff — We finally have L Jack on the main slate, and he could NOT find himself in a better spot at Detroit in the dome. Detroit had us convinced the 49ers had a good QB and offense. I normally play Jackson solo, but they are FINALLY getting Hollywood Brown open intentionally. He’s seen 16 targets to Sammie Watkins 15, but I think they are all in play. Goff and co were a late add to my list. THIS AIN’T YA MAMa’S BALTIMORE DEFENSE so far. With injuries on the line, and in the secondary, I think we can stack Goff with TJ Hockenson and Quintez Cephas. 20 and 16 targets respectively, I think they’re in play every week. Especially at home where the defense will force them to play from behind. Goff is just going to have to throw it every single week. Former Mackey Award winner Hockenson is stepping right up into a WR1 Kelce type role for this offense. This 50-point total should go over.
Josh Allen — Stefon Diggs — I stack this pair up every week. I think Washington has a good defense, but it’s not GREAT as advertised. Along with Cole Beasley, the passing game is still where it’s at with this offense. A tough matchup to open vs the Steelers, then a blowout win vs Miami where the ground game had success, will keep game log watchers from playing Allen, and I think that’s a HUGE mistake. I think this game at 45.5 vs WFT goes over. I think WFT’s offense replies and keeps the game somewhat close and competitive thru 4 quarters.
3 decision points of the week
Derek Carr — Darren Waller — Miami is turning into a team to just stack defenses and offensive weapons against once again. Waller the Baller has 26 targets already, and The RRRRRRRRaiders look to air it out early season again this year…No Josh Jacobs puts the offense on Carr’s back.
Teddy Bridgewater — Courtland Sutton — If you’re looking for a cheap 300-yard bonus plus 2 TDS..look no further. Plus, you can pair him with Noah Fant to fill in a loaded TE spot this week. GREAT MATCHUP vs the lifeless Jets.
Ryan Tannehill — AJ Brown/Julio Jones — Nobody will want to play this stack (and after watching them who would want to?). Bad performances keep ownership down. The Colts are a mess, and it should be easy pickings for any offense vs them, as the Colts offense will do NOTHING this week. It’s a get right spot for Tanny this week.
Wide Receiver — As always, all the WRs above are in play, especially in stacks that have the other QB or WR in the lineup to make game stacks. Who else can we look to as well to fill our rosters?
Calvin Ridley — Matt Ryan is always a danger of cratering his performance. Leads team with 18 targets. He a decent matchup vs the GEEEEEE Men. with a decent total. Until Ryan’s series of Pick 6’s vs Tampa, it was a 28–25 game in the 4th quarter.
Sterling Shepard — His recent game log along side Daniel Jones is PHENOMENAL for his price. Gets a great matchup with Atlanta. As opposed to a roster filler, he will be a first guy in vs last guy in without stacking this week. Leads team with 19 targets.
Terry McLaurin — Offense does not get a downgrade with the QB change. Still a #1WR.
Charles Claypool — Diontae Johnson is out, and nobody will play him in tournaments. He must and will be involved vs Cincy.
Odell Beckham, Jr. — No Jarvis Landry. Must step up at some point. The downside is Baker spreads the ball around, including his 3 TEs.
Courtland Sutton — Stepped right into #1 WR spot with Jerry Jeudy out. Great matchup vs lifeless Jets.
Marvin Jones, Jr. (a must play every week…20 targets thru 2 weeks)
Derrick Henry — If you faded him last week, you regret it now. So do not do that again. He’s in play every week. The Big Dog should eat here vs a lifeless Colts team looking to trot out Wentz on two bad ankles following post season foot surgery. To sweeten up the deal, he’s caught 9 recs off 10 targets so far.
Austin Ekeler — Bounced back with 9 recs in week 2, and now gets a matchup we attack every week with RBs vs The Chiefs with a 55.5 total. Almost a lock.
Nick Chubb — He’s going to have a 150-yard 2 TD game soon, and I like his chances vs Da Bears. Can sub Kareem Hunt by name here if we think Cleveland plays from behind.
Antonio Gibson/JD McKissic — One of these two will have a big game Sunday vs The Bills. Depends on how you think the game plays out. With a lead, lean Gibson, from behind catching up to Josh Allen, it’s JD McKissic in the passing game.
Joe Mixon — Saw another 20 carries last week. Despite the tough matchup, will once again see a heavy workload.
Najee Harris — Will be the only RB to touch the rock for the Steelers. We saw his work in the pass game increase in week 2. Good matchup.
Saquan Barkley — I think this is the breakout game vs Atlanta. He’s rested since Thursday Night’s game vs WFT.
Damien Harris/James White — I’m leaning White as Harris is a traditional RB vs a tough rush defense.
Melvin Gordon/Javonte Williams — Split work for the two right down the middle. Great matchup vs The Jets. If they play with a huge lead, maybe the lean the rookie vs the vet to kill the clock in the 4th quarter.
Ty’Son Williams — He’s cheap, but behind Lamar Jackson, he isn’t the first go to option for their rushing attack. But it’s too great of a spot to ignore.
Tight End — A good TE score is a huge difference. So, choose wisely here.
Rob Gronkowski — 2 Td’s a game all the time. Playing with The GOAT.
Darren Waller — “#1 WR” in theory for the RRRRRRRaiders. Waller…The Baller.
Tyler Higbee — Wildly disappointed in Week 2, gets the same matchup that helped Kyle Pitts bounce back.
Kyle Pitts — Speaking of Pitts, great matchup vs The Giants. Workload should simply increase as season progresses.
TJ Hockenson — He will continue to get Travis Kelce/Darren Waller type work…for less the price. 20 targets thru 2 weeks.
Logan Thomas — 100% of snaps played thru 2 weeks…. involved…. good matchup. One of my secret favorite TEs each week.
Noah Fant — GREAT matchup. The new #2 option behind Sutton right now with competent QB play at home.
Raiders — Like a lot of others, they will creep into most of my lineups and rightfully so. Miami is a disaster on offense once again and brings the worst offensive line vs an active and hot pass rush.
Broncos — See above and just change the names and face a rookie. Widly expensive on DK and tough to fit.
Browns — On paper, the Browns pass rush is better than Chicago’s protection. However, we do not know the offense or schemes planned with Fields under center. It’s always a good idea to target ROOKIE QBs.
Cardinals — Could see another huge day for Chandler Jones and the pass rush vs a rookie QB.
Patriots — Great head coach vs Jameis Winston….
Questionable defenses — These are defenses “I don’t want to play” but I cannot cross them out yet:
Saints — The defense is NOT the problem in New Orleans. They too face a rookie QB.
Seahawks — One of the games with the high totals WILL produce a defense with double digit fantasy points. Pete Carroll has a good history vs Kirk Cousins.
-Should throw the Rams into this category of high scoring totals with a good defense.
Titans — The Colts will likely trot out Carson “2 ankles” Wentz and that’s just a terrible decision. But that let’s you know what they think of his backup. For Tannehill, this defense, just HAS to be the bounce back spot for them. If not now, it will be a long season in Tennessee.
Steelers/Bengals — At the end of the day, its an AFC North showdown, destined for a 17–13 finish. Ben does not look good. The Steelers should get 4–5 sacks. Both defenses are on the table in tournaments.