Welcome to Week 13 of The OSG Report. With Sunday and Monday night games, and 3 on Thursday earlier this week, it will leave us as tight a player pool as we have had all season. I love those, where I was able to find my favorites, and am ready to hit the smash button Sunday. So here goes…See ya at the top!!
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson — Can’t get much worse than last week which is a great time to jump on a player…following a bad performance. His pass catching core in Hollywood Brown, Mark Andrews, and Rashod Bateman (along with the valueless Sammie Watkins) and even Devin Duvernay are all healthy. All systems go here for the weeks possible highest QB scorer.
Tom Brady — Could be the next highest QB with no rushing to show. VS Atlanta this could be a smash spot for this whole offense and you can stack any way. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin (who has a GREAT record vs ATL) and Gronk all stand to crush here in Brady stacks. As you saw last week we can even throw Uncle Lenny in Brady stacks.
Matt Stafford — Could continue his turn around here. Got back to 300 yards and 3 TDs last week and vs the JAGS we could see a wash-rinse -repeat with Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, and OBJ working the field.
Justin Herbert — Even in what the eye-ball tests shows “down games” for the Chargers he still has two straight games with 300 yards and multiple TDs and is an EASY stack with Keenan Allen if the game vs Cincy shoots out. Austin Ekeler with his pass game work may be the best pairing Sunday.
Kirk Cousins — It does not get friendlier than at Detroit in the dome in December for Cousins, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen. We would like for Detroit to offer some form of competition to raise the ceiling here. Any blowout could still result in box score success for the stack.
Carson Wentz — Not always a favorite recommend but he’s coming off of a 300 yard and 3 TD performance as well and faces a far lesser opponent in Houston. The Wentz — Michael Pittman stack is going to hit and this is as good a shot of any.
Derek Carr — One of the more interesting stacks with Hunter Renfrow and Foster Moreau at TE with Darren Waller likely to miss. These stacks can be run back with Terry McLaurin or Antonio Gibson. Washington/Oakland provides some sneaky shootout potential.
Tua Tagovailoa — He is quietly playing well for his price though I would love to see a 20-point performance. He’s keying in on Jaylen Waddle making an easy pairing vs the lowly Giants.
Tough Sells:
Joe Burrow vs a Chargers defense that is VERY stingy in the air while allowing anybody to run on the ground. Mix that with Cincy handing the ball off at such a high rate to control games that we have not seen the ceiling in Burrow stacks since weeks 8 and 9.
Kyler Murray in his first game back from an injured ankle is surely to keep his rushing down at Chicago. Weather will not help this spot either. Take away the weather and a few other factors, this could still be an up in pace game with Dalton starting for Chicago.
Wide Receiver
Rams WR Core — Cooper Kupp leads the way. In a “bad game” he still had 96 yards and 18 fantasy points giving way to big TDs for Van Jefferson and OBJ. All 3 are in play, just plug in your preferred price here. The JAGS will NOT be able to cover all 3, or any of them for that matter.
Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Jefferson just hits big plays each week, and Thielen just secures red zone catches for TDs every week. It’s the most straight forward offense for fantasy this season when trying to pinpoint production. Great matchup..let the good times keep rolling.
Keenan Allen — double digit targets in 5 straight games. Can’t ignore the consistency.
Terry McLaurin — Scary Terry could EAT vs the Rrrrrrrraiders.
Ja’Marr Chase & Tee Higgins — Such a smash spot for Mixon that it will be hard to click on the WRs in Cincy. In tournaments that should leave them virtually un-played by the field.
Diontae Johnson — Just look at the target counts each week. His short route tree is actually benefited by Big Ben’s passing style now. Charles Claypool has inherited the big plays downfield but he does get the targets each week. Should hopefully be a competitive game vs Baltimore but as you see Johnson’s game log (even in blowouts) that his volume still remains intact. Just don’t watch the game or any Big Ben film prior to rostering them. Just follow the flow charts!
Mike Evans/Chris Godwin — SMASH SPOT!!!!!! Each week they climb the list as my favorite WRs with Brady. All Evans does is chase down TDs. Godwin has a great state line over the last 3 seasons vs ATL. ATL cannot cover anybody. Brady could throw for 390 here as he has before. And it will be these two and Gronk.
Marquise Brown and Rashod Bateman — I expect Lamar to bounce back and that should directly benefit this pair.
Jaylen Waddle — Tua’s favorite target. Parker returns but you cannot ignore the chemistry here over the last month. 12, 10, 10, & 9 targets and finally hit the end zone last week.
Hunter Renfrow — Great value with Waller out in a potential shootout. Target machine.
Michael Pittman — He has been oh so close and I’ve been riding the train. So I refuse to jump off at the Houston exit.
Darnell Mooney — I like this play more if the weather stays dry-ish but look at his stat line with Dalton in the last two weeks. 120 plus yards and a TD from 8 and 16 targets.
Brandon Aiyuk — POTENTIAL SMASH SPOT HERE. No Deebo and with Eli Mitchell as the lone RB, Aiyuk stands to see more targets and like he did in college perhaps eat some rushes that were going Deebo’s way. His usage was already on the rise, and now we have usage to go around vs a spiraling Seattle team.
Zay Jones and Desean Jackson — I like Jones a bit more after watching vs Dallas after Waller went down. 7 targets and 5 receptions and D Jack hit the big play on his way to 100 yards as well. In a sneaky shootout all targets are in play for Carr.
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor — Bounce back spot vs one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. Ignore the game log vs Tampa. Every RB struggles there.
Austin Ekeler — In the best spot for LA vs Cincy. Has the range to get 100 plus yards in the rushing/passing game combined.
Joe Mixon — My favorite RB of the week. People hate playing him due to his perceived lack of involvement in the pass game. It’s matchup vs the Chargers I even rolled the dice successfully with Javonte Williams. DO NOT FADE JOE MIXON THIS WEEK. BARRING INJURY HE MAY SEE 30 TOUCHES AND MULTILPE RED ZONE OPPORTUNITIES.
Najee Harris — His game log decreases each week alongside Ben’s spiral. Could still pop any week. The best players tend to show up in division games.
Alexander Mattison — Perhaps my second favorite RB of the week when I’m not playing Cousins stacks. In two games without Cook: 25 carries 113 yards, 7 rec 1 TD (vs Detroit might I add), and 26 carries 112 yards, 6 rec vs Seattle (see Eli Mitchell). Smash play anytime Cook is out.
Leonard Fournette — We are NOT chasing his last performance here, but as we wrote last week, he’s just too involved on the ground and in the pass game for one of the BEST offenses in the NFL. Tampa plays smart (how could you not with Brady?) and are not afraid to dump it off to Uncle Lenny, or hand it off inside the 10.
Eli Mitchell — Even saw the targets last week along with 27 carries and 133 yards and TD. Smash spot with no backfield competition vs Seattle. Even greater share with Deebo out.
James Conner — Has capitalized in every way including the pass game with no Chase Edmonds. Even a better play with Kyler and D Hop set to return. We want RBs in offenses that are moving the ball, presenting scoring chances. If they want to protect Kyler, they should hand it off even more in the red zone.
Myles Gaskin — # 1 RB in an offense improving each week. Has good amount of red zone touches.
Antonio Gibson — JD McKissick is out and Gibson is taking ALL the touches and pass game targets. Potential shootout here making ALL PIECES PLAYABLE VS THE RRRRRAIDERS.
Devonta Freeman — Ouch but good salary saver. 16 carries in 2 straight. Games with 4 and 6 targets over the last 3. Has taken over the Baltimore backfield…we think.
Jamaal Williams — An industry favorite, not mine. I want RBs with offenses who will move the ball. It helps that they’re playing Minnesota and they seem to be in shootouts EVERY week. But Swift is out and the opportunity is there. Saw 5 targets after Swift wend down last week.
Miles Sanders/Boston Scott — IF you can guess this puzzle you win. The JETS are the WORSE rush defense by a mile. The Eagles are currently the most run heavy offense in the NFL. Do the math here. Sanders was leading the snaps until an injury took him down, but he was “on the way” there. Boston Scott came in and carried the torch. Remains to be seen if Scott will be punished for his fumble. Jordan Howard is likely to miss creating a two-man committee here.
Tight End
Mark Andrews — I’ll likely spend down at TE but he’s one of Lamar’s clear favorite targets. All 4 Lamar INTs were intended for a covered Andrews. Still managed 4 rec and a TD. Over 15 fantasy points in each of the last 3 games.
George Kittle — Again, I’ll likely pay down but should see a “a few more” targets with Deebo out.
Zach Ertz — Price is hard to take with D Hop back, but he’s played very little with Kyler. So we do not know what to expect.
Rob Gronkowski — My favorite spend up option and priced less than the above with THE GOAT at QB. Gronk looks great. He’s healthy. And they are set for a playoff push.
Pat Freiermuth — Like Mike Evans…all he does is score TDs. Was the lone TD in the blowout loss vs Cincy. Plug-n-play as long as Ebron remains out.
Gerald Everett — Should never be the best option on an offense with Tyler Lockett and DK on your roster. But with Wilson’s decline, he’s seen 8, 4, and 9 targets the last 3.
Tyler Conklin — Mainly TD depended to pop. 7, 7, 5, 3 and 3 targets the last 5 weeks. The offense should be clicking and is a good stack piece to get different in Cousins stacks.
Jack Doyle — He’s back. 5, 5, and 7 targets the last 3. Great matchup vs Houston.
Jared Cook — Yes, he is an TE committee but continues to pace in targets with a reasonable price tag.
Foster Moreau — Perhaps the BEST spend-down option at 2.7K with no Waller. Great game environment at home vs the mascotless Washington Football Team.
James O’Shaughnessy — O Hennessy! The TEs keep producing in JAX. Arnold is done for the year and he was producing early season before he went down and they traded for Arnold in the first place.
Defense
Rams — Wildly expensive but they’re playing the JAGS and should kill their O Line…literally.
Colts — Same…priced up..should also kill the O Line.
Eagles — Have been playing quite impressive as of late vs lesser opponents and that should continue vs the terrible Jets O Line and offense.
Buccaneers — Should be able to apply pressure to Matt Ryan who is all but done.
Dolphins — One of my favorites of the week. They are priced for Daniel Jones but Mike Glendon gets the start for The Giants whose offense was already dead in the water.
Vikings — Have been forcing sacks at a high rate and INTs even though they will give up points. I just don’t’ see Detroit doing much as they gave up 4 sacks, 1 fumble and an INT vs Minn last time out.
49ers — Nothing on paper here but the eye-ball test. SF is rolling and Seattle is doing the exact opposite. It’s hard to think to target Russ, but we must follow the trends.
Tough Sells but playable with reason:
Bengals — If Herbert can’t get going. It’s a reasonable defense.
Raiders — Heavy play volume and it’s not like Washington will NOT turn it over or have a dud game
Washington — Same reasons as Raiders.
Bears — If Kyler is gimpy. They’re at home. Could be raining. That in itself makes the ball slippery. So we can throw the Cardinals defense in the mix as well vs Dalton as AZ is still a good defense.
Lions — Pure punt play at 2.3K. Have only allowed 16, 13, and 16 points the last 3. The first game vs Minnesota was a 19–17 slug fest.
