Fantasy Ballers…Week 1 is FINALLY FINALLY upon us. Welcome to this weeks OSG Report where we will dive into the Sunday Schedule Slate. Week 1 is wide open. Salaries on sites such as Draft Kings were released early in the preseason, so starters (especially rookie starters) are priced as backups. However, let’s skip the introductions and get right into it.
Patrick Mahomes — The Chiefs/Cardinals game clearly has shootout potential all over it. So, I have no problem with spending up for DK’s highest price QB Sunday. This year we are focusing on tournaments so the fact that we have plenty of unknowns is great. The easy stack is Mahomes/Kelce, but I like getting different and attacking with Mahomes/Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster or Mahomes/Marquez Valdez-Scantling. Ju-Ju- is 5.2K and MVS is 4.7K and this could be a 7.5K role. I think Mecole Hardman is last man up, but I can understand firing him out there.
Justin Herbert — Yes Mr. 300 Yards is back, and we can go right back to the Herbert/Mike Williams stack. The trick is do we pair him also with an aging 7K Keenan Allen, or the younger 3.8K Joshua Palmer. A fast-paced matchup (AFC West theme this year) with the Raiders offers ceiling for all combinations here.
Kyler Murray — Play him early and often in these high tempo games. Will be interesting to see who truly emerges as his go-to WR. Week 1, I’m firing him up with fellow former OU Sooner Hollywood Brown. He’s priced up at 6.2K is the only issue as we have a lot of value at WR this week. We can place Rondale Moore in the mix here as well.
Jalen Hurts — I love the Philly/Detroit game but who do you pair a rushing QB with? They didn’t go out and sign an Alpha WR such as AJ Brown (6.4K) to have him block on rushing attempts. Against this Detroit secondary I do not have any issues with Brown or Devonta Smith or Dallas Goedert at 4.5K… a thousand-dollar discount from Smith.
Joe Burrow — Normally we shy away from this AFC North Division game with the Steelers. But Week 1 may not be the Steel Curtain we expect, especially with all kinds of question marks at QB in Pittsburgh. Not only do I want to stack Burrow, but I want to DOUBLE stack him with both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. I believe the trio picks right up where they left off. Cincy improved their offensive line with ALL NEW STARTERS to protect Burrow. Fire them up in all formats.
Jared Goff — I know we are digging deep, but I love pairing him with Amon Ra-St. Brown and TJ Hockenson at tight end. We simply do 1 thing every season vs Philly…attack the middle of the field. St. Brown is in the slot at 6.1K and Hockenson will operate there as well at 4.9K. Goff may scare you a little bit but at home in the dome in this matchup after actually finishing last season “strong,” I see no issues with Goff “this week.”
Honorable Mentions:
Jameis Winston, Baker Mayfield & Daniel Jones — Mayfield may be more of a revenge play as Baker is an emotional player and if you do not believe his coming out Week 1 (with no film on the new offense) fired up, you should think again. He still has a great RB in Christian McCaffrey to use in the pass game, and I would certainly pair him with DJ Moore. Moore is a thousand-yard WR with the washed-up version of Cam Newton, and the likes of Kyle Allen. Winston on the hand is a huge mystery. Rookie Chris Olave is only 4.5K and will operate in Winston’s favorite area: the outside! Kamara will be Kamara and we may get some of the old Michael Thomas, which is better than none. We can look at Daniel Jones as a VERY poor man’s Josh Allen. He gets the same offensive coordinator mixed with a similar set of skills when you mix the rushing upside. He can almost be paired with Barkley as between the 2 of them should plenty of passes and red zone touches if the Giants are moving the ball.
Wide Receiver — Aside from the stacks and WRs mentioned, where else can we go to fill out our WRs.
Davante Adams — I came into the season a little low on Adams. For Week 1, with a potential shootout (or a lot of plays run) with the Chargers with a 52.5 total he’s in play in game stacks. I do not think the higher price WRs will get clicked on much with so much value at WR.
Justin Jefferson — 49 Total. Minnesota will be in numerous shootouts…starting Week 1.
Tyreek Hill — He’s still an explosive playmaker even with a downgrade at QB. New England’s offense just isn’t good at all and Miami should have plenty of short fields with big plays drawn up for Hill.
Brandin Cooks/Nico Collins — Spend up or down but if Davis Mills continues to throw 300 yards every other game, they will be the direct beneficiaries. Houston is 7-point underdogs leading to them playing from behind creating more pass attempts. I think Collins takes a big step forward this season.
Michael Pittman — At 5.5K on DK vs Houston he will be very popular Sunday in tournaments. I think he is a good play in “small field” competitions, but I will not get much of him in the large field tournaments. He should have plenty of opportunities with little target competition, but I question Matt Ryan at this point of his career.
Christian Kirk — At 5.1K he will be the #1 WR for Trevor Lawrence. We could have some sneaky array of fantasy points in the Jax/Washington game. At his price he offers tons of value.
KJ Osborn — If he takes a step ahead of the aging Adam Thielen, this is the week to start it off. 4.9K and could be his cheapest price tag all season.
Sammie Watkins — He’s 4.7K and has a history of injury. However, it’s Week 1, he’s possibly Aaron Rodgers’ #1WR in a potential 49 total at Minnesota.
Value Plays
George Pickens — At 4.1K and with Trubisky at QB, it’s some shaky value in Pittsburgh with a shaky offense. But he is dynamic and a playmaker and can make something out of nothing.
Alec Pierce & Parris Campbell — 3.9K and 3.2K, could be a direct pivot away from Michael Pittman. They are pretty much in the same spot but cheaper, and at less ownership.
Jahan Dotson — 3.4K, he is extremely cheap playing alongside Terry McLaurin. Washington drafted him 16th overall and should be on the field plenty vs JAX.
Wan’Dale Robinson — He’s 3K for the Giants in his rookie debut. Sterling Shepard remains but I’m interested in the rookie here.
Running Back
Johnathan Taylor — He’s the most expensive back on DK at 9.1K. He figures to be a huge amount of the offense but with Ryan at QB, I question the amount of red zone carries we see. It does help he’s facing Houston.
Derrick Henry — Same story, do I want to spend up here at RB? They’re home and favored but he’s a one trick pony as good as he his.
Christian McCaffrey — He’s an every week starter with PPR ceiling thru the roof.
Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, all fine. We know they’re game, just not sure on price tags.
Joe Mixon and James Conner fall into a price I begin to like, and I lean Conner because of his role this season. Mixon will likely not play on passing downs, while Conner should be a pass catcher and definite goal-line back.
Deandre Swift — Big Season incoming. Involved in the pass game. Fire him up this week.
Aaron Jones — Should see a tick up in production with Davante Adams out of Green Bay. 49 game total. Can also consider AJ Dillon in the same spot. Could potentially see goal line work.
Saquan Barkley — Should be healthy. New offense. New coach. 6.1K price tag with 7.5K potential due to his involvement in the pass game.
Antonio Gibson vs Travis Etienne — Gibson should dominate 1st and 2nd down work for Washington, and Etienne should dominate all 3 downs for Jax in this potential shootout with Jax/Wash. Do NOT play them together however in the same lineup.
Miles Sanders — Between Jalen Hurts and Sanders, Philly should run all over Detroit. I would not be surprised if the Eagles rush for 200 yards here.
Chase Edmonds — Was paid to come to Miami (along with Tyreek Hill…not mentioned in WR section) and did not do so to ride the bench and not catch passes as he did in AZ.
Dameon Pierce — Houston’s rookie is ready for Lead Back duties in Week 1. At 4.8K he’s not a lock but he’s close to it. Yes, they will pay from behind, but he’s likely to be involved in the pass game here.
Tight End — Do not forsake using TEs in stacks with QBs you love
Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce — What else needs to be said here? You’re paying up at Tight End for WR production as they may be de facto #1WRs for Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. Andrews gets a nut matchup vs the Jets from the start, and Kelce is Mahomes most experienced target with Hill out of town.
Kyle Pitts — Love the player, hate the QB.
Darren Waller — Waller the Baller should be in up-tempo game here vs The Chargers. Targets should take a hit with Adams in Las Vegas.
TJ Hockenson — Love him (and any TE vs Philly) this week.
David Njoku — Hate the QB, but shaky QBs lean on their TEs. He led the NFL last season in receptions over 15 yards. Displays big playmaking ability, and of all the TEs Cleveland carries, they paid Njoku. Only 3.9K on DK.
Irv Smith — My sneaky TE this season. If he stays healthy could be an every week pivot away from Justin Jefferson, and stackable with Kirk Cousin. 3.4K on DK.
Mo Allie-Cox — No Jack Doyle should lead to an elevated role for an aging QB who loves to use his TE.
Defense
49ers — Almost too expensive on DK but should have Justin Fields under an immense amount of pressure Sunday.
Chargers — Should get a ton of pressure as well on Carr in an up-tempo game. More drop backs. More chances for fantasy points for an aggressive D-Line who should outplay the Raiders line.
Saints — Always an underrated fantasy defense. Good matchup vs a terrible Atlanta team.
Cincinnati — Should be able to get to Trubisky easy in this divisional showdown.
Jax/Washington — Both defenses are in play. Could backfire.
